Turkey's chance to join the European Union looks to be ebbing away in the face of a resurgent anti-EU vote, stalled reforms and mounting hostility from EU members towards Ankara's membership bid. Some analysts fear Turkey's political and financial stability could be hit if its decades-old campaign for EU membership no longer looks like it will succeed. The success in a European Parliament election last week by centre-right parties opposed to Turkey's membership dealt a new blow to the Muslim country's already troubled EU hopes. “The friends of Turkey are getting thinner and the enemies of Turkey are getting stronger,” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst for think-tank Eurasia Group. “Turkey is not at the end of the road yet but if the alienation between Turkey and the EU continues we could see a slow death of Turkey's EU membership bid.” Adding to a sense of a looming crisis ahead of key progress reports due later this year, leaders in France and Germany have revived calls to offer Turkey a “privileged partnership” rather than full membership. Sweden has also said it might not be possible to open new chapters or negotiating areas during its six-month EU presidency that starts from July. Financial markets, accustomed to Turkey's rocky, on-off relationship with the EU, have taken the developments in their stride and the lira, bonds and stocks firmed slightly this week on hopes the worst of the global economic crisis is over. But analysts say Turkey's drive to modernise its political institutions and pursue macroeconomic stability might suffer were Turkey and the EU to break off negotiations for good. They argue Turkey, a country long vulnerable to bouts of political and financial instability, functions better with strong external anchors, such as the prospect of joining the EU. “The carrot of EU accession has benefited both Turkey and Europe, which wants a democratic and stable Turkey in the region regardless if it joins the EU,” said Sinan Ulgen, from the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies. “We are at a point where Turkey and the EU need to reassess their relationship, but it would bring no good to anybody to end this dynamic,” Ulgen said. EU division EU countries agreed unanimously in 2005 to start talks with Turkey with the goal of full membership, but Turkey deeply divides the 27-member bloc. Supporters cite Turkey's strategic position as an energy corridor and its vast market economy as assets for Europe but opponents say it is too poor and culturally different to fit in. Turkey's failure to push long-overdue reforms such as expanding free speech and minority rights, and its refusal to open its ports and air space to Greek Cypriots - an EU member - has hardly helped it sell its case in Europe. France's President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are the most high profile of European politicians opposed to Turkey's accession. Its strong advocates such as Britain's Gordon Brown and Spain's Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero both suffered badly at the European Parliament vote. “In general, the enlargement process received a blow in this election and Turkey's EU process will be affected,” Mehmet Ali Birand, a leading columnist wrote. In another setback for Ankara, Sweden's Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said this week that although Sweden supported enlarging the EU, it would take into account views in member states which are more resistant to further expansion. There are important tests later this year. The EU publishes its annual enlargement progress report in November, which many expect to be very negative in the light of lack of key reforms, particularly on a new constitution. “A critical report will affect the markets negatively,” said ING analyst Hasan Sener. “Global markets are making a bigger impact in the short term but news on an IMF loan and the EU will decide the direction of the markets towards autumn.” The European Commission, which has frozen eight out of 35 chapters over the Cyprus dispute will review in December Ankara's promise to open its ports to Cypriot vessels. Suspension unlikely Few expect a complete suspension of Turkey's EU bid - this would need unanimity among 27 member states - but Sarkozy and Merkel could push their case for a privileged partnership, buoyed by the success of their parties in the European election. Turkey, which has a lucrative customs agreement with Europe, says it will only accept full membership and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has accused Europeans of dishonesty. “If you offer someone a Mercedes and years later you come up with a Lada nobody is going to accept that,” said Amanda Akcakoca, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. “Membership is still a long way off, but saying ‘no' to Turkey would halt its transformation process and Turkey could become an even more loose canon that it is now.” EU diplomats in Ankara admit doubts cast on Turkey's long-term prospects of membership might have killed incentives for the ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party to take political risks and push ahead with controversial but needed reforms. The AK Party says reforms to democratise the country of 72 million people, will continue regardless of the EU. “We have to press on, but we would all loose if Turkey is finally denied entry,” said Burak Ozugergin, a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “What are the alternatives for Turkey?”
