CANADA's three opposition parties will have to overcome some big hurdles if they are to carry through with an implied threat to bring down the ruling Conservatives and create a coalition government. The Liberals, the left-leaning New Democrats and the separatist Bloc Quebecois are outraged by the government's fiscal update bill, especially plans to eliminate public funding for political parties, a move that would financially cripple the three. To form a coalition they would need to defeat the ruling Conservatives and then persuade the governor general, who represents Canada's head of state, Queen Elizabeth, that they could govern together despite their differences. To make matters more complicated, the Liberals and the New Democrats - who together have only 114 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons - would be unlikely to create a formal coalition with the separatist Bloc. But they would still need to rely on the Bloc, perhaps over a list of agreed issues, never knowing when the separatist party might decided to stop supporting them - hardly the recipe for long-term stability. And if that were not tough enough, the Liberals might also be tempted to replace their unpopular leader in the immediate future before a coalition could be formed. “If it wasn't for the fact that they're creating so much hype, and perhaps backing themselves into a corner (and) needing to do this, I would just say the hurdles are too big,” said Steve Patten, a political scientist at the University of Alberta. The Conservatives, who can rely on the support of 145 legislators, say the opposition parties are trying to undermine democracy. That said, if Prime Minister Stephen Harper were defeated, he would have to go to Governor General Michaelle Jean and tell her he had lost the confidence of Parliament. Losing a confidence vote usually triggers an election. But given that the last federal vote was only on Oct. 14, experts say Jean would have to speak to the opposition to see whether they have a convincing plan to govern the country. Coalition plan might have a chance Professor Michael Behiels, a constitutional specialist at the University of Ottawa, said that if the opposition presented the right case then Jean would give them a chance. “All they have to say is, ‘Listen, we're going to bring in measures that will gain the support of a majority in the House. We're not going to do anything that will drive away the Bloc',” he told Reuters on Friday. Another complicating factor at this stage is who would lead such a government. The Liberals performed so badly in the October election that leader Stephane Dion promised to step aside once party members chose a new leader next May. Few Liberal legislators back Dion but the party has no way of forcing him out early. If he did decide to quit now - rather than presenting himself to Canadians as their prime minister so shortly after they firmly rejected him - the national caucus would elect an interim leader and then ask the party's national executive to confirm that choice. There are two leading candidates in the race to replace Dion and if one gets chosen as interim leader, the other might object. Assuming a proposed coalition survived all these difficulties, it would first need to work out which parties ran which government ministries and then settle with the Bloc. Doing deals with the separatists need not be fatal politically - the Bloc backed Harper for his first year in power - but must be handled very gently. For this reason, said the University of Alberta's Patten, Michaelle Jean would want to see a formal signed coalition between the Liberals and the New Democrats rather than a vague deal promising to co-operate. “To sell this to the Canadian public as a legitimate reason to defeat the government ... they have to say they have some kind of plan. Perhaps the Bloc can be brought on board around some aspects of that plan,” Patten told Reuters. “They need some kind of commitment to it lasting for a certain period,” he added, saying this could be 18 months. Whether a shaky coalition could keep itself alive for so long is highly uncertain. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe said that to support a coalition he would demand a full package of economic stimulus to tackle the global crisis and a plan to aid the manufacturing sector. Behiels said that, given all the problems, he did not see how a coalition government could last more than a month or two. This, he added, might be what the prime minister has planned all along. Harper won the first of his two minority governments in January 2006 and makes no secret of his desire for a Conservative majority. “I'm convinced he wants a third kick at the can and he wants this before the recession really sets in and he's forced to get involved in deficit financing,” said Behiels.
