NEW YORK — Oil's plunge is spreading both pain and gain across the globe. The price of a barrel has fallen by about half since June, punishing the economies of some major exporters. Russia's currency has nose-dived, for instance, and investors worry Venezuela could default on its debt. For countries that consume a large amount of the world's oil, it's a different story. The world's four biggest economies — US, China, Japan and that of the European Union — all benefit from lower oil prices. “Economically this is a good thing for the US, it's a good thing for Europe, it's a good thing for China and it's a good thing for most consumers,” says Sarah Ladislaw, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Whether the price plunge ultimately helps or harms the global economy depends on how low oil prices fall, how long they stay low, and whether they trigger political upheaval that interrupts trade or spooks investors. On Friday the global price of oil traded near $61, down 47 percent from its high for the year of $115. That drop removes nearly $5 billion a day in revenue from the global oil industry — and reduces costs for consumers. The prices of bonds of some state oil companies and developing nations have fallen. And a possible recession in Russia next year could hinder European economies in their recovery. But the US stock market is trading near an all-time high, helped by some of the best employment and wage growth since the Great Recession. Western sanctions against Russia were already pressuring the rouble when oil prices plunged, accelerating the currency's decline. A move last week to help the state-owned oil company Rosneft meet debt obligations sent the ruble down even further, raising concerns about a run on banks as Russians fled to stores to buy expensive goods before prices rose. Oil and gas sales account for nearly 70 percent of Russia's export revenue. If oil prices stay near $60, the Central Bank said the Russian economy could contract by nearly 5 percent next year. Even at $80 a barrel, the Russian economy could still shrink by 0.8 percent. Like Russia, Venezuela's economic problems predate the decline in oil prices. Venezuela is even more dependent on oil revenues, though — they account for 95 percent of the country's exports. The price of Venezuelan bonds has plummeted in recent days as investors worry about a default, a move that could trigger political upheaval. On Wednesday Nigeria's finance minister trimmed the country's 2015 budget by $3 billion, or 12 percent, because of lower oil prices. The world's biggest economies are also the world's biggest oil users. Lower prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel helps boost those economies by giving consumers more money to spend and businesses more money to invest. Lower gasoline prices will save the typical US household $550 next year, the Energy Department predicts. Shares of airline companies and shippers like UPS and FedEx have soared in recent months. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that the decline in energy prices is “likely to be a net positive” for the US even if it decreases domestic drilling activity, because the country remains a net importer of oil. Consumers in China, Japan and Europe spend a lower portion of their income on energy, so a cut in energy prices doesn't go quite as far, although it still stimulates their economies. There's a catch for Japan, however. Falling oil prices could hamper efforts to trigger inflation in an effort to overcome economic stagnation. — AP
