The truce signed between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels to end almost five months of fighting follows, almost to the letter, a ceasefire proposal issued by President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine in June. It includes a halt by both parties of "any offensive military operations" in Donetsk and Luhansk, international monitoring of the ceasefire, prisoner exchanges and the opening of a humanitarian corridor to allow aid to reach civilians. Why this latest truce might stick is that the conflict has now killed about 2,600 people. Public opinion polls suggest the Russian people have had enough. The number of Russians willing to support their government in an open war with Ukraine has slipped – 36 percent of Russians gave a “definitely yes” in March. That figure stands at just 13 percent today. In the Ukraine as well, although some Ukrainians reject the idea of a compromise, a majority are weary of upheaval. At the same time though, there are huge sticking points that might make the truce untenable. The rebels are adamant that the ceasefire has not changed their policy of wanting to separate from Ukraine. And while the ceasefire proposals include a rough outline of a possible political outcome to the conflict, negotiating that could be a significant hurdle. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been pressing for regional autonomy for the southeastern regions, which would allow Moscow to influence events in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. But the Ukrainian government has thus far supported only the idea of decentralization. One area the deal doesn't cover is the political settlement of the conflict. Poroshenko has already said the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for discussion, only to be followed by the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics saying their goal of splitting from Ukraine is unchanged. The agreement thus appears likely to usher in a long, frozen conflict. It could effectively become a political stalemate like those in other Russian-dominated states. An impasse is not the best conclusion to the conflict, seeing that it has developed into the most severe confrontation between Russia and the West since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. With the ceasefire deal, Putin may hope to avert a new round of sanctions which the European Union leaders ordered to be prepared. The repeated rounds of Western sanctions against Moscow will most likely not stem Putin's hunger for more territory but for now there is little else the West can do. There is, of course, the summit in Wales in which NATO leaders agreed to create a rapid response force with a headquarters in Eastern Europe that could quickly mobilize if an alliance country in the region were to come under attack. While Ukraine is not a NATO member, the entire alliance has been alarmed by Russia's actions in Ukraine, and Russia is under both US and EU sanctions for its backing of the rebels. The new readiness action plan is therefore intended to send the Kremlin a message that NATO has been rejuvenated and could respond swiftly to Russian aggression. For now the truce appears to be holding, and Poroshenko says there should be talks about a long-term solution to the conflict. However, neither side will find it easy to persuade their constituents to talk to the other side after so much bloodshed has flowed. But if at least a weekend can pass without military and civilian deaths, skepticism might give way to cautious optimism.
