IN one of the most astonishing developments in modern American politics, John McCain stunned the nation with his choice of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his vice presidential running mate. Although Palin, a 44-year-old mother of five who has served less than two years as Governor and previously was the mayor of a town with a population of less than 9,000, is short on experience, she will energize the Republican social and fiscal conservative base. Whether regarded as a desperate, risky gamble or as a brilliant, bold political coup, the surprise selection of Palin demonstrates that if nothing else the McCain camp knows how to keep a secret. Although mentioned from time to time as a possibility, the Alaskan governor was not on anyone's shortlist and no one seemed to be aware of negotiations and the detailed background checks that must have taken place. The timing of the announcement of Palin's selection on the morning after the close of the Democratic National Convention in Denver and Senator Barack Obama's speech accepting his party's presidential nomination immediately turned the media spotlight away from Obama and onto McCain. This was always going to be the case as the Democratic Convention preceded the Republican Convention and McCain was able to schedule the announcement of his VP choice for a time when it would have the greatest impact. However, the surprise selection of Palin made that announcement all the more effective and firmly places the spotlight on her and McCain and the Republican Convention for at least the next week. No doubt members of the media on their way to Minnesota for the convention in St. Paul have already been diverted to Alaska and hotels there should be doing some unexpected business. Palin's selection is clearly an attempt to appeal to those Democratic and Independent women voters who refuse to put Hillary Clinton behind them and cannot warm to Barack Obama, and it is perhaps safe to say that if Obama had selected Clinton as his running mate, McCain would have made another choice. At the rally in Ohio where Palin was introduced she was quick to praise Clinton, saying, “It turns out the women of America aren't finished yet, and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all.” Although in the end of Palin may not be able to attract many Clinton supporters, she does balance the McCain ticket in many ways. She represents the young fresh face of the Republican Party; her reform record of standing up to the corruption of her own party in Alaska reinforces McCain's maverick credentials; and her moving personal narrative as a strong pro-life advocate who has recently given birth to a baby with Down syndrome and as a mother whose son will soon be leaving for Iraq will resonate with those for whom family values is an important social issue. Though short on administrative experience, she still has a longer executive track record than Obama, Biden and McCain who have never served in executive positions. She also is clearly a Washington outsider and helps McCain to position himself outside of the orbit of the Bush White House. She made her name in Alaska by exposing ethical violations on the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, and as Governor she has opposed federal earmarks even though they would have benefited her state thus earning the praise of fiscal conservatives and others who oppose waste in government spending. On the negative side, her choice severely undercuts McCain's message that Obama is too young and inexperienced to be President. Palin is three years Obama's junior, and clearly has no foreign policy experience, and it is in fact unclear how extensively she has traveled outside the United States. It may be difficult for Americans to see her as a commander-in-chief negotiating with international leaders, and become comfortable with the idea of her being one heartbeat away from the presidency. Furthermore, it remains to be seen how well she will perform on a national stage. She has not been tried and tested throughout the primary campaign and the extent to which she is familiar with important national issues is as yet unknown. She will need to be a very quick study indeed. Apparently she played basketball in high school and her sharp elbows and fierce play leading her team to the state championship earned her the name Sarah Barracuda. Those skills will come in handy over the next two months. If the economy is the major issue in the minds of American voters at the moment, it is hard to see how she helps McCain who himself has acknowledged being challenged when it comes to dealing with economic issues, especially, most recently, in keeping track of how many houses he owns. Alaska seems very remote to most Americans, and it may be difficult for them to image how any economic initiatives which Palin may have taken in Alaska can be related to life in small town Pennsylvania and Ohio. Palin also does not put a must win state in play for McCain. Alaska has voted Republican since 1964 and although Obama has opened a few offices there this year, it can hardly be considered a swing state. Finally, Palin is currently under investigation by the Alaskan State Legislature regarding the firing of the state's public safety commissioner who alleges that he was pressured by the governor's office when he refused to fire Palin's brother-in-law, a state patrolman who was involved in a messy divorce case with Palin's sister. She has said that the allegations are untrue, and presumably the McCain camp has assured itself of her innocence. However, her selection by McCain will now make certain that the media will go through all aspects of the case with a fine-toothed comb. So what possible difference does her selection make to McCain's chances to be elected president? There is a maxim in American politics that no one votes for the vice president and that the first rule in selecting a VP is that he or she does no harm to the ticket and that if the choice actually does bring benefits then so much the better. The choice of Governor Palin as the Republican vice presidential nominee will energize the Republican social conservative base and may play well with those, especially Independents, who are pleased to view McCain as a maverick capable of making bold, ‘anything goes' decisions, but it is still too early to say exactly what kind of choice John McCain has made. However, whether it turns out to be brilliant or foolhardy, the selection of Governor Sarah Palin has highlighted the fact that the 2008 US election campaign is far from over, and that we should fasten our seatbelts because the next two months are likely to contain many more exciting twists and turns in the road. __
