JEDDAH – The concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) market is forecast to double in 2012 and reach almost 90 MW or $325 million, according to a new report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc.). IMS Research predicts installations of this emerging technology will grow rapidly over the next five years to reach almost 1.2 GW by 2016. CPV technology uses optics such as lenses or curved mirrors to concentrate a large amount of sunlight onto a small area of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells to generate electricity. Compared to non-concentrated photovoltaics, CPV systems can save money on the cost of the solar cells, since a smaller area of photovoltaic material is required. Because a smaller PV area is required, CPVs can use the more expensive high-efficiency tandem solar cells. To get the sunlight focused on the small PV area, CPV systems require spending extra money on concentrating optics (lenses or mirrors), solar trackers, and cooling systems. Because of these extra costs, CPV is far less common today than non-concentrated photovoltaics. However, ongoing research and development is trying to improve CPV technology and lower costs. The market research firm's recently released report. “ The World Market for Concentrated PV (CPV) - 2012", revealed that the CPV market is predicted to reach almost 90 MW in 2012 and at the same time revenues are predicted to increase by more than 60 percent to reach $325 million. IMS predicts that despite strong competition from conventional PV systems, there is still an attractive market for CPV in its target regions. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) PV roadmap is based on scenarios that yield an average annual market growth rate of 17 percent in the next decade, leading to a global cumulative installed PV power capacity of 200 GW by 2020 (IEA, 2010). Given the pace of developments in the PV sector, even small differences in start years or assumptions can lead to very divergent results for future installed PV capacity and the IEA roadmap is likely to have underestimated installed capacity by 2020. Projections to 2015 are particularly challenging, given that new installed capacity has been growing so rapidly. Projections from 2010 to 2015, made in 2011, already risk being out of date, given the rapid growth in installed capacity in 2011. Analyzing trends in 2011 resulted in projections of total installed PV capacity in 2015 of between 131 GW and 196 GW. Although the upper range of this projection still looks reasonable, the lower end looks unduly pessimistic as even if new capacity growth stabilized at 2011 levels, this figure would already be reached by around the end of 2013 or early 2014. Although it remains to be seen what impact, if any, the continued economic weakness in Europe might eventually have on capacity additions. “CPV suppliers are being forced to continually decrease costs in order to compete with the rapidly falling cost of PV systems. The technology is still relatively new and faces bankability issues. Despite this, CPV suppliers have made significant progress in the USA market, with a forecast 13 percent share of the target market in 2012, rising to a predicted 27 percent by 2016," said report co-author and IMS Research Analyst Jemma Davies. While CPV is forecast to remain a niche in the overall PV landscape, in the long-term, the report found that the outlook for CPV remains positive. Installations forecast to capture an 18 percent share of its target market (ground mount systems with a direct normal irradiance DNI above 6kWh/m2/day) by 2016. High concentration PV (HCPV) systems are forecast to dominate the market in 2012, although low concentration PV (LCPV) installations are forecast to accelerate over the next five years. The latter is expected to capture a 20 percent share of the CPV market by 2016. “Currently LCPV suppliers have not entered the market aggressively, however with recognized companies such as SunPower poised to install a significant amount from 2013, these products are set to gain market share as a result," added report co-author Sam Wilkinson. According to the report, the most attractive markets for CPV will be the US and Central America as well as Middle East and Africa (excluding South Africa), which will see CPV capturing up to a 27 percent share of the high DNI target markets by 2016. In particular, regions such as South West US, Chile, Saudi Arabia and Morocco are predicted to see high growth, with conditions in these regions suited to CPV. – SG
