than-expected military buildup has alarmed the United States and its Asian allies and could help the Pentagon gird against deeper defense cuts threatened in some corners of Congress. But even though the sophistication of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has exceeded US military forecasts, there is a recognition within the Pentagon that some of its most-cited conventional capabilities are still in their infancy. China's first aircraft carrier, a refurbished Soviet-era vessel known as the Varyag bought from the Ukraine, began sea trials in July. Chinese sources said Beijing is also building two indigenous carriers, a claim the US military believes is misleading at best. Admiral Robert Willard, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told Reuters that while China might be pursuing procurement or some other embryonic action on an indigenous carrier, it would be premature to say “a keel is laid.” “The only ship that anyone has seen and that they have discussed with any level of fidelity is the Varyag, this particular ship that has floated,” Willard said in an interview. But the refurbished Soviet-era carrier is not yet fully operational. China, the last permanent member of the UN Security Council to get carrier capability, will not be able to effectively field an aircraft carrier with any combat aircraft aboard for years, according to Pentagon estimates. A Pentagon assessment to Congress noted Brazil's navy offered to provide China training in carrier operations. “However, Brazil's limited capabilities in this area and the extensive problems with Brazil's own carrier program raise some questions as to the implications of the offer,” it said. Then there is question of China's stealth fighter jet, the J-20, which did its first test flight during a visit by the US defense secretary to China in January. Despite the attention given to the J-20, the Pentagon does not expect it to achieve an effective operational capability before 2018. There are also questions about how effective its stealth capability may be. The J-20's test flight proved its stealth design but did not reveal other attributes to help it avoid detection that might come later, sources say. “China faces several hurdles as it moves toward J-20 production, including the mastery of high performance jet engine production,” the Pentagon report said. The United States has had a proper stealth fighter since Lockheed Martin's F-117 Nighthawk made its first flight 30 years ago. That aircraft was retired from service in 2007. Prior “low-observable” US aircraft date back to the 1950s with the U-2A high-altitude reconnaissance plane. The PLA is also still some way from mastering the ability to mount large joint force operations, which will be needed to make the most of newfound capabilities grabbing headlines. The US military has spent the past decade of war honing joint operations that weave together teams and skills from across its armed forces – a hard-won but potent tool. The US Navy's top intelligence officer warned before retiring earlier this year against overestimating Chinese military capabilities. “I don't view them as 10 feet tall,” Vice Admiral David Dorsett said. “Have we seen large joint sophisticated exercises? No ... They are at the front end of developing their military capability.” At the same time, the US military believes China appears on track to field a modern, regionally focused military by 2020. A comprehensive strategy to maintain the US edge in the Pacific will require investment, a tough challenge in an era of budget cuts. The Pentagon now counts a base budget, excluding war costs, of over half a trillion dollars. China downplays its defense spending but acknowledged in March a 12.7 percent rise in 2011 defense outlays to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion). Still, the US military, while expressing confidence in future funding for the Asia-Pacific region, is not parroting some of the more volatile China rhetoric seen in parts of Congress. __
