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Morocco and Algeria: The Collapse of Coexistence
Published in AL HAYAT on 03 - 11 - 2013

The collapse of Moroccan-Algerian coexistence on the edges of the Sahara quicksand was expected and did not come as a surprise to anyone. The return to square one, at the level of bilateral and regional relations, reveals that the two sides have run out of patience after they could no longer see the ray of hope at the end of the tunnel. Indeed, neither did bilateral relations between the two countries witness any progress along the course of positive normalization, nor did the United Nations efforts to end the Sahara conflict proceed in the right direction, nor did the Maghreb organization - that is at a standstill - exit the bottleneck.
When the two countries revived their diplomatic ties in the eighties of last century after a period of severance, it was believed that dialogue through diplomatic channels would be better than any other approach requiring mediation to convey the messages. However, the few years of détente retreated and tensions became the headline of relations governed by caution and mistrust.
This may be the first time at the level of relations between states that severance seems more likely than any other possibility. This is due to the fact that the détente which was not secured through diplomatic dialogue channels will unlikely evolve beyond the current state of stalemate, following the summoning by Rabat of its ambassador in Algiers for consultation. Hence, the situation has reached a high level of impatience, expressed in a way confirming that a lot of things are not heading in the right direction and that the attempts to conceal this reality do not deny its existence. Between the statements related to the human rights situation in the Sahara and the hinges of the psychological machine in the management of the conflict, there are numerous other issues of dispute.
Morocco and Algeria coexisted with the Sahara conflict, thinking that the dispute will dissipate with time. The conflict thus kept being perceived as a thorn in the foot, especially when the two countries could not proceed down the same path. Nevertheless, it transformed into some sort of a tumor, with each side wishing to remove it, its own way. At this level, the Moroccans are proposing wide autonomy for the province's population, respecting the principle of self-determination in choosing a realistic solution. Algeria and the Polisario on the other hand are calling for a referendum that was sponsored – since the early nineties - by the United Nations, which appears to have replaced it with the "political solution" description that tolerates further interpretations.
The fall of the last brick in the coexistence structure was seen following the visit of UN Envoy Christopher Ross to the region and his presentation of a report stressing the necessity of launching secret talks between Morocco and the Polisario, then with Algeria and Mauritania, after reaching a preliminary agreement over the support of the course of the negotiations. This means that the two observed countries will play a much greater role.
It is not unlikely that the current escalation is also linked to the anticipated visit of American Secretary of State John Kerry to Algeria and Morocco. At this level, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement regarding the expansion of MINURSO's prerogatives – one which caused anger among the Moroccan – is the same one that provoked a transient crisis between Washington and Rabat in the spring and led to the suspension by Rabat of the largest military exercise with the United States. Since Rabat met the American position with disgruntlement, it was natural for it to do the same vis-à-vis the Algerian stance.
Perhaps what is worse is that the disputes between the two neighboring countries are no longer limited to the border and Sahara files, as they were joined by the blatant divergence in dealing with the security and political challenges in the Sahel region south of the Sahara. At this level, the Moroccan position was the object of numerous scathing criticisms, at a time when the Moroccan-American understanding focused on coordination over the situation in the Sahel, the Syrian crisis and the Middle Eastern files.
The new crisis between Rabat and Algiers is carrying negative repercussions on the regional level, namely seen in the failure of the efforts deployed to revive and reactivate the Maghreb Union, considering that no talk about the Maghreb Union is possible outside the context of détente between Morocco and Algeria. However, such détente is unconceivable, due to the ongoing closing of the land border between the two neighboring countries and the escalation over the Sahara issue, one which seems to be taking a new turn that will likely cause North Africa to witness the aftershock of political earthquakes. This does not come as a surprise, in light of relationships governed by geographic proximity and deteriorating due to historical disputes.


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