If the Russians led the Syrian regime into the cage of the chemical weapons inspectors to destroy its arsenal, where does Guide of the Islamic Republic in Iran Ali Khamenei hope President Vladimir Putin will accompany him, to find a solution to the nuclear file predicament? The ally is in a cage, no matter how hard Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to find evidence convicting the Syrian opposition of being behind the chemical massacre committed on August 21. And while the agreement to destroy the Syrian chemical weapons brings back to mind facets of the experience of Saddam Hussein's regime with the international inspection teams, what is certain is that President Bashar al-Assad's regime fears that the agreement will trigger its gradual dismantlement, regardless of the developments at the level of the fight with the armed men. For its part, Israel perceived the Lavrov-Kerry accord as being a prize it won without having to buy a ticket. But the urgent question provoked by the rush of the new Iranian rule (under Rohani's presidency) to request Kremlin's intervention to seek a fast settlement for Tehran's nuclear file is the following: Will the removal of the Islamic Republic's nuclear fangs constitute the greater prize offered to Netanyahu by the Russian-American deal? Just like the Syrian regime perceived its submission to international control over its chemical arsenal as being a "victory" that allowed it to avoid the American military option – despite the presence of Russian fleets in the Mediterranean Sea – it would be fine for Guide Ali Khamenei to prepare the Iranians and especially the Revolutionary Guard to accept the "heroic leniency" during the talks with the P5+1 states. Clearly, Iran is not Syria that is being swept by the regime's wars with the armed oppositionists and its sharing of the country with dozens of fighting factions. Moreover, it would be an exaggeration to say that Tehran fears an imminent Israeli military strike to close the nuclear file. In reality, the Iranian facts throughout the revolution and war in Syria, and all through the chapters of the American and European sanctions on Tehran before that, are the ones pushing Khamenei to drink the bitter cup of "heroic leniency" in the upcoming negotiations with the P5+1 states (i.e. the five major states and Germany), while aware – along with President Hassan Rohani – that the West has decided to reject any hesitation, reluctance or stalling on Tehran's end in responding to the demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Does Al-Assad bring Saddam to mind? Syria will not be invaded, considering that neither Washington nor the West in general wants to see its troops stuck in the quicksand of Al-Nusra Front and its allies. It is a slow dismantlement process targeting the remaining tools and cards held by the regime, which firstly meets the requirements of Israel's security that is sponsored by American interests. And while Khamenei's cup also brings to mind the bitter cup swallowed by Khomeini when he accepted the ceasefire with Saddam's Iraq (1980-1988), the cost of sponsoring the Syrian ally financially and militarily since 2011 has amplified the impact of the sanctions on Tehran, to the point where former Iranian official Seyed Hossein Mousavian – who is close to Rohani – talked about an exceptional opportunity to end decades of mutual hostility with Washington. Some optimists about "heroic leniency" expect the gradual normalization of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington, starting with the neutralization of the confrontation over the nuclear file, which would allow President Barack Obama to implement his promises to Israel without firing one bullet, before seeing the transfer of highly-enriched uranium from Iran to Russia and the subsequent lifting of the sanctions' sword. In that same context, the latter optimists are summarizing Khamenei's and Rohani's messages to the Revolutionary Guard with one expression: The time has come for a settlement. Indeed, Iran has exhausted the nuclear card to the farthest extent and for more than a decade, and what is dubbed by Israel the strategic Tehran-Damascus-Beirut "danger arc" is collapsing due to the tragic repercussions of the war on Syria, especially following the shock of the chemical weapons' use in Ghouta. Hence, Damascus is incapable of mobilizing its allies to support Tehran in any confrontation with the West, while Iran can no longer support the Syrian regime to salvage it. The Ghouta chemical attack thus changed the rules of the game, rendering the Iranian-Russian supporter unable to lead the regime outside the cage of the inspectors and the game of the nations. This does not mean the expectation of an imminent collapse by Al-Assad's regime or Khamenei's signing of an instrument of surrender to the West. The Russian-American confrontation is returning to the hall of the Security Council, but Damascus cannot rely on that to elude its commitments before the United Nations that is working on files to amplify the cage. On the other hand, this does not change anything at the level of Moscow's preparations to thwart any UN draft resolution to impose Chapter VII, at a time when the Syrian experience might provoke the fears of the conservatives in Iran over a bitter end for the placement of all the nuclear cards in Kremlin's basket. What is certain, on the sidelines of the heated diplomatic battle between Washington and Moscow, is that Minister Lavrov's swimming against the current following his agreement with Kerry over the destruction of the Syrian chemical arsenal, is part of the game of nations along the path leading towards an agreement between the major players. As for the reemergence of the conflicting Israeli signals in regard to the fate of Al-Assad's regime, their impact in Tehran probably exceeds by far their echoes in Damascus, where the victory drums are currently overshadowing the terrible collapse of the system by which tyranny was sponsored to deter "conspiracies." Khamenei is struggling, Lavrov is swimming, and the regime in Damascus cannot believe what it is hearing in terms of the echoes of the transformations provoked by the chemical strike.
