If Iran has truly sounded the horn to defend the Syrian regime, in order to head off any attack by the Syrian opposition on Damascus, which has been planned for months, then this is an indication that the Syrian crisis has entered a new phase, one of increased Iranian involvement. Tehran will not accept being stripped of the tools of its influence in the region, after these weapons have been under attack for months – beginning with the crisis in Syria, and including the recent unrest and challenge to the authorities in Iraq, which are sponsored by Iran. Moreover, the protest movements that have been supported by Iran in a number of Gulf countries and Yemen, have been stalled, through either confrontation or dialogue. Many people believe that the offers by the Group of Six countries to Iran, during their negotiations with the Islamic Republic in February, will receive a response, to compensate for the regional cards it might lose, as Iran accepts a settlement with western countries over its nuclear program. In this line of thinking, Iran will receive benefits that legitimize the use of nuclear power, while putting limits on its actions in the region. However, the thinking of Iran's leadership lies elsewhere. Most likely, Iran will see the necessity of retaining these regional tools in order to negotiate over them and over the country's benefits to be gained from the nuclear issue. It is no coincidence to see several events taking place in the region with Iran's “signature." Hezbollah is openly and unashamedly taking part in fighting alongside the Syrian regime, in an attempt to recover areas controlled by rebels. This is despite the fact that this participation is deep in Syria, as far as Homs, and far from the Lebanese-Syrian border in the northern Bekaa. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Tehran's preferred figure in Baghdad, has carried out his threat to crush his opponents and the country's tribes, who have been protesting against his policies in Anbar province for several months. Maliki gave the army orders to shell protest camps west of Kirkuk, and then Baghdad. In Bahrain, the opposition has returned to the streets after accepting the offer of dialogue a few months ago. Finally, Syrian President Bashar Assad has threatened that the “terror" in Syria will move to western countries; he issued a quasi-call for mobilization to his allies, upon receiving a delegation from Lebanese parties allied with Syria and Iran in Damascus on Sunday. During the meeting, Assad mocked and criticized Lebanon's policy of disassociation, saying that there was no room for such a stance. This is especially because Assad believes that Lebanese parties, who were helped and supported by Syria when its influence held sway in Lebanon, should return the favor and help their ally out of the difficult spot it finds itself in. While speaking to this delegation of party officials, Assad clearly disclosed the type of change in the balance of power on the ground that he is seeking, after the opposition and the rebel Free Syrian Army succeeded in controlling a larger area of the country. Assad said the situation on the ground will affect the American-Russian summit in Ireland in June, and not vice versa. Circles close to Tehran are hinting that the general mobilization that has been launched could go farther than this, as Iran insists on not losing its most important card in the region, namely Syria. Iran's call to arms includes, in addition to the open involvement by Hezbollah in battles inside Syria, the arrival of fighters loyal to Tehran – from Shiites in several countries, in the Arab world and Asia – to confront the Arab jihadists and opposition fighters who have moved to Syria to help topple the regime. If this is the case, Iran no longer cares about the impact of all of this on rising tension between Sunnis and Shiites in the region as a whole, and the chaos that could result. Likewise, Iran no longer cares about seeing Hezbollah becoming immersed in sectarian strife, which could be exploited by the west, happy to see Sunni fundamentalists enter the cauldron in Syria, and overjoyed to see the Shiites of Hezbollah fighting these individuals in the land of Greater Syria. The most dangerous thing hinted at by Iran's sounding the horn and the general mobilization that it is carrying out to ensure the success of its counter-attack to retain its regional cards, led by Syria, is indicated by the distribution of the photo of the meeting between the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic with the secretary general of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. This unique photo has several functions, amid the open involvement of Hezbollah inside Syria. It hints that Hezbollah is the actual agent for carrying out this offensive; it is also a message to the Hezbollah faithful who are questioning the value of such a policy of involvement. This message also covers those Shiite Lebanese who complain about this path and says it enjoys the support of the clerical leader of the Islamic Republic, whom they must obey, even if this means using Lebanon as the only route for this policy after help from the Syrian regime was cut off on other fronts, such as Iraq. However, the success of this requires fragmenting the state of Lebanon if its institutions prevent the country from being used as an arena of general mobilization; will the Great Powers allow such a thing?
