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The Illusions Of The Syrian Opposition...Or Some Of Them
Published in AL HAYAT on 12 - 03 - 2013

The Syrian regime is not the only party that is suffering from the illusion of a potential victory. The Syrian opposition is also suffering from another illusion, one that has the same kind of adverse effects on the fate and length of the Syrian crisis. The common denominator for all the different opposition sides consists of their desire to change the regime, and everyone knows that any worthy change must necessarily lead to toppling the head of the regime. However, and despite all these givens, the differences are still raging within the opposition over the “method" that must be followed to topple the head of the Syrian regime.
These differences were clearly highlighted through the latest “withdrawal" of Moaz al-Khatib, the head of the National Coalition, and his abstinence from taking part in the Istanbul meeting. The meeting was planned for today and it was supposed to come up with a decision concerning the appointment of the prime minister for the temporary cabinet in response to the decision of the Arab League that consisted of granting the Syrian opposition Syria's seat at the League, provided that the opposition agrees on forming an “executive authority."
According to people close to him, Al-Khatib's excuse for delaying the meeting is that he wants to maintain an open door in front of the settlement initiatives with the regime based on Lakhdar Brahimi's mission and the Geneva statement last summer. Regardless of how much this excuse is in line with the military field situation in Syria - considering that the situation there no longer allows for any possible mediation - the main problem with the hindering of the Istanbul meeting by the head of the coalition is that this was a solo action, just like his former initiative that called for dialogue with the regime and that stirred wide resentment and condemnation among all the different parties within and outside the coalition.
There are different opinions concerning Al-Khatib's initiatives. Some say that his initiatives are due to his political inexperience especially with an expert regime in the game of conspiracies and traps. Some others say that the man is a “softy" who believes that addressing the Syrian president with an emotional tone and reminding him that he is a “father" to all the Syrians might prevent him from proceeding with the horrific crimes carried by his militias and security services.
But what is more serious than this is that Moaz al-Khatib is committing errors in the political interpretation of Syrian crisis. He, along with other opposition figures, believes for instance that the door to holding a dialogue with the Authority is still open thus allowing for reaching a solution to the crisis. However, the Syrian president had indicated in several speeches and statements that he is capable of military settlement with the opposition and that he is unwilling to give up power except through the voting ballots. Where can the dialogue with the regime lead in light of such a position? And will the opposition members agree to wait until the next year elections where they will be standing side by side with President Bashar al-Assad although everyone knows how serious and credible such a competition is?
In addition, some opposition sides including Moaz al-Khatib, believe that the Russian-American rapprochement may succeed in finding a solution to the crisis since Moscow is ready to give up on the Syrian regime provided that an alternative comes up in Damascus, one that convinces Russia and that calms its fears regarding the future. But regardless of whether this analysis of the Russian position is correct, nothing on the ground justifies this political position – at least for the time being.
These political differences between the opposition sides, which are partly induced by the regime, not only serve this regime but also weaken the determination of the forces that are fighting and dying in the country and the vitality of the external support that is crucial for the opposition. On top of that, these differences provide the regime with a support that goes beyond the support provided by the daily killing machine.


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