The whole region is moving to the rhythm of the Syrian clock. Syria concerns everyone to begin with. In the past, it was impossible to ignore its role. Today, it is impossible to ignore what is transpiring in it. The cruelty of the scenes coming from Syria has drawn in both faraway and nearby homes to the course of the conflict. In that spot which is ever sensitive thanks to its composition, position and ability to emit radiation, a complicated conflict that is plugged to the arteries of the region is raging. It is a relentless and merciless Syrian-Syrian war. It is a regional confrontation with unprecedented belligerence and stakes. It is a public test of strength among major powers, following the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, and the Arab spring's many chapters - especially in Libya. The Syria that existed on the eve of the outbreak of the protests, no longer exists today. The grip of this regional player has slackened and its trump cards have slipped from its hands. Khaled Meshaal now prefers to sleep in other capitals. Its allies in Lebanon look at Syria with much concern as it slides further into crisis and bloodshed. This is while those who were concerned by Syria's role and its ability to influence affairs beyond its borders now worry for Syria and for the affairs within its borders being manipulated by others. Thus some are concerned by the prospect of a protracted civil war, some are worried by the prospect of Yugoslav-like scenes that may push the world into military intervention in Syria, while others worry about a lengthy period of bloody chaos, where the rocket and chemical arsenals would fall into the hands of this side or that, or about the waves of refugees and the contagion from sectarian conflict. This is what a journalist will hear if he tries to take a pulse of the region. You call your Iraqi friend to ask about “Maliki's crisis", in which he is involved, and he admits that the crisis is a serious one, but he reminds you that the most sinister crisis is the one unfolding in Damascus, and that the Iraqi public opinion is split with regard to it. He said that any disintegration that might happen in Syria will re-launch a similar process in Iraq, and that he felt deeply concerned, “because Iraqi Shiites want the regime in Syria to stay while ignoring its crimes, and because Iraqi Sunnis want this regime to collapse without taking note of the alternatives and the risks". My Iraqi friend also said, “Tehran's concern is even worse than Baghdad's. The collapse of the regime in Syria means the defeat of an Iranian plan that has cost decades and billions, and will weaken Iran both in the region and within its own territory". Jordan, too, is moving to the rhythm of the Syrian clock, despite its many domestic troubles. Jordan currently dwells somewhere among the impasse in the Palestinian-Israel peace process, the continued deadlock in Iraq and the raging flames of the Syrian fire. It fears an influx of Syrian refugees, and increased sympathy in the Jordanian street with the Syrian protesters, as well as the possibility of waking up one day to the noise of an international military intervention aimed at stopping the massacres in Syria. Lebanon has been moving for decades to the rhythm of the Syrian clock. This country has an exceptional ability to import external fires. The bloodshed between Sunnis and Alawites in the North is but a small sample of what could happen. The stances of many Lebanese toward the Syrian crisis have an undeniable sectarian tinge to them. This applies to both the Syrian regime's opponents and supporters. Lebanon is shuddering in fear. The Sunnis fear the possibility of the regime surviving ‘for some time'. The Shiites fear the possibility of power in Syria falling into the hands of factions that they stood against and clashed with. The Christians are afflicted by the concerns and fears of minorities, and are divided. Amid these intense fears and wagers, President Michel Suleiman is trying to gather the Lebanese together under one roof. He is attempting to postpone the outbreak of fire. The Lebanese are thus pretending to be preoccupied over the issues of their national dialogue, while their eyes are on Damascus. It will be difficult to rein in Lebanon's disintegration if disintegration in Syria sets in. Turkey, too, is monitoring the Syrian reactor. Its radiations have confused policies that Turkey spent years formulating and engineering, causing it many economic losses. Erdogan dreams today of toppling his former friend. The game is complicated. Turkey cannot ignore the Iranian and Russian positions. At the same time, it cannot tolerate a lengthy regional civil war on its borders. The Syrian reactor is emitting its radiations in the direction of many faraway and nearby capitals. In recent days, the danger of these radiations increased considerably. It is difficult for the world to live long with this. Russia itself will have to take action and propose a solution that stops the radiation leak. It is a mistake to rest for too long on the Russian laurels.
