Once again the discussion in Egypt has returned to the issue of an imminent modification of the government, after talk of appointing a Vice President for President Hosni Mubarak has ceased. And it seems that rumors such as these will continue to circulate until the end of the parliamentary elections scheduled before the end of the year, subsiding for a while then returning yet again until the matter is settled in July of next year, which is the scheduled date for announcing the start of candidacy applications for the presidential elections. It has become a custom for ministerial changes to be made in Egypt following the annual conference held by the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), which usually takes place in September of every year, or after the legislative elections as a traditional measure, even if only one minister leaves the government and is replaced by another. On the whole, the appearance of President Hosni Mubarak, having recovered after the surgery he underwent to have his gallbladder removed, his receiving a number of Arab leaders over the past few days and his heading a ministerial meeting held to discuss domestic issues, has done away with rumors of a Vice President being appointed soon, one who would take charge of some of the tasks which the President's health situation might prevents him from carrying out. Indeed, Mubarak appeared to be in good health, having overcome the stage of hospitalization and recuperation, and this coincided with the announcement by the Secretary-General of the National Party Safwat El-Sherif that the name of the NDP's candidate to the presidential elections would be announced after the end of the People's Council elections, not before them, and that the issue of the presidential elections will only be addressed in due time. It was clear that Sherif was responding to questions that have been going around in Egyptian political circles about the future of Egypt and the presidential elections, in light of intense political activity that has gone far beyond the issue of the parliament and of its elections and become focused on the issue of the presidency. Some have based their predictions of Mubarak changing the government on the fact that he had replaced the previous Prime Minister Atef Ebeid in 2004 upon returning from Germany after undergoing surgery in his back, as if changing government cabinets in Egypt was connected to the President's health or to the surgeries he might undergo. It is true that Doctor Nazif's government has been the object of harsh criticism, both from the political elites and from opposition forces. Yet the Egyptian people have realized that Mubarak does not rely solely on the criticism of officials to have them replaced. Moreover, the situation of political concord, the state of activity rippling over Egyptian society and the false interpretations that might arise in the event a modification of the government were to take place make such a ministerial alteration highly unlikely. And it seems that the area of the debate is increasing, being further widened by the competition between newspapers and between satellite television stations, who have found in the issue fertile soil liable to be developed and “filmed”, especially with the rising intensity of the activity of non-partisan opposition forces in the street, a street that has become overcrowded with those protesting the worsening situation of employees, workers or the unemployed, or demanding political reform, or those promoting a specific candidate to the presidential elections. Would appointing a Vice President or changing the government solve the political problem in Egypt? The major figures of the ruling National Party do not consider the country to have a political problem in the first place, and Safwat El-Sherif expressed this when he pointed to the fact that the articles of the constitution guarantee a peaceful and constitutional transition of power. Yet, on the other hand, the entire spectrum of opposition forces considers the country to be facing a tremendous problem, that the time has come for change and that the stability which the NDP speaks of and makes sure to maintain is only stagnation and debility. In any case, what is certain is that Egypt is headed towards an important phase of transformation, whether President Mubarak decides to nominate himself for a new presidential term, whether the NDP nominates Gamal Mubarak for the presidential seat or whether the party puts forth one of the members of its higher council to wage the presidential competition. In all three cases, there will be a new change, taking shape in the reaction of other forces to the name of the candidate put forth by the NDP, to his program and to his intentions for the future.
